Both Sides of Blake: Are the Commanders Playoff-Bound?

Why the Commanders will make the playoffs

Following a 4-13 season, many Commanders fans went into the offseason with a pessimistic mindset, expecting another losing season to come. Add on the fact that Washington has had two playoff wins in 11 years, and the future begins to look bleak for D.C.’s team.

However, after overhauling the roster and drafting the franchise QB, fans are starting to gain hope once again. Through the season’s first three games, numerous players have shown growth from the prior year, and are becoming key difference makers. The Commanders have started the season 2-1, the team is showing real promise and could be poised to make a run at the playoffs. 

Washington was able to secure premium draft capital after the abysmal season they had last year, which led them to be able to take LSU Quarterback Jayden Daniels. The 6’4 Heisman signal-caller has had no problem transferring his skills to the professional level, throwing for 664 yards and adding another 171 yards on the ground. The rookie has been able to do this without any turnovers, while boasting the highest completion percentage in the league, at 80.3%, a staggering 5% higher than the next QB.

While the sample size is small, Daniels through three weeks shows all the potential in the world to elevate this team. If Washington continues to get this production from their Quarterback, they can expect wins and even a playoff appearance. 

When Josh Harris purchased the Commanders back in July, he knew there were problems within the organization that had to be addressed. His first move was to hire a new general manager, bringing in former 49ers Vice President of Player Personnel, Adam Peters. Within the coming months, Peters overhauled the coaching staff, hiring new coaches on all three sides of the ball. HC Dan Quinn, OC Kliff Kingsbury, DC Joe Whitt Jr, and STC Larry Izzo.

As that comes with new coaches, they naturally brought over their staff, essentially creating an almost entirely new coaching staff for the Commanders. With the new staff in place, they completely turned over the roster to fit their vision, retaining a league-low 39% of the roster. This new and improved Commanders team was built mostly from the same people working together, resulting in players fitting into the scheme, leading to success. 

With 61% of the roster being new players, the Commanders attacked positions of weakness through the draft and free agency, bringing in key players on both sides of the ball, like LB Frankie Luvu and C Tyler Biadaz. The offensive line and linebacker groups were severe liabilities last season and one of the main reasons the offense and defense could never solidify as a competent unit.

While some underperforming players from last year remained, fans have to keep faith in the front office and coach’s talent evaluations in regards to the roster. Head Coach Dan Quinn has been adamant that this team is not rebuilding, and rather just, “recalibrating.” This thinking aligns with how they’ve reconstructed the roster so far, and continue to be competitive in games. 

Many will point to last year’s team as a point to why the Commanders won’t be competitive this year, and they would be somewhat correct. The team began to implode on itself towards the end of last season, losing 8 straight games to end the year. What they fail to consider is, this is an entirely new Commanders squad, from top to bottom. New Owner, GM, Coaches, and players. The culture has been rebuilt, and the team was constructed for a specific purpose, to build for the future, while staying competitive now. With division rivals looking weaker this year, the Commanders have a real shot at making their first playoff appearance since 2021. Comparable to the Texans quick turnaround last season, Washington will look to replicate the same formula and take the league by storm.  

Why the Commanders won’t make the playoffs

Commanders fans are optimistic for the first time in a long time, as they enter a new era with new faces at starting quarterback, head coach, and general manager. After purchasing the franchise from the much-maligned Dan Snyder for over $6 billion, owner Josh Harris is charging forward with a rebuild, hoping to lead the Washington faithful out of a dark stretch of dismal performance. 

Since 2016, the team’s last winning season, the franchise has undergone two name changes, 14 starting quarterbacks, and its only playoff appearance was a loss after winning a weak division with a 7-9 record. Although Commanders fans are expecting a major turnaround this year, here’s why they’ll fall short.

The competition isn’t easy for the Commanders. They have to deal with a tough division led by the Dallas Cowboys, reigning NFC East champs, and Philadelphia Eagles, both of whom posted double-digit win totals. Both teams are expected to remain competitive this year, as the Cowboys re-signed franchise QB Dak Prescott. Meanwhile, the Eagles added superstar running back Saquon Barkley to an already high-powered offense. 

While the New York Giants aren’t much of a threat, Washington will have to face the Eagles and Cowboys twice each, totaling four out of 17 on the schedule. The Commanders will have to prove themselves against two of the top talents in the NFL if they want to make the playoffs.

Commanders fans were ecstatic when the team drafted Heisman Trophy-winning QB Jayden Daniels with their first-round pick in the 2024 draft. He’s already shown great potential within his first three games, particularly with an impressive performance in the team’s win against the Cincinnati Bengals. However, the roster still has a lot of question marks. Will the offensive line be able to protect the flashy rookie Daniels? The right side of the unit stays the same from last season, while Brandon Coleman, Nick Allegretti, and Tyler Biadasz are newcomers at left tackle, left guard, and center, respectively. While certainly a different unit, it doesn’t seem to be significantly better — the unit is ranked 27th out of 32 by both PFF and Sharp Football Analysis. 

Washington traded away former first-round receiver Jahan Dotson to the rival Eagles during the preseason, leaving a noticeable hole in the wide receiver room. Behind one-time Pro Bowler Terry McLaurin, the talent for WR2 and 3 is scarce. Unproven players like Dyami Brown and rookie Luke McCaffrey will need to step up and provide value in the passing game in order to give the Commanders a shot.

No matter how much you change, you can only improve so much in a single offseason. That could prove troublesome for the Washington defense, as they were ranked dead last in 2023. The Commanders’ D allowed a whopping 518 points to opponents last season, 63 points more than the next worst team gave up. They also finished last in the NFL in terms of allowing total yards, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. When teams played Washington in 2023, 46.8% of their drives — nearly 50% — ended in an offensive score. 

Although the team has retooled its defense, through players as well as staff, they have not changed enough to go from abysmal to playoff-caliber. The secondary is still very suspect, and it will take a lot of good coaching from Dan Quinn if the Commanders’ defense is to improve. If not, it will be a very difficult path to the playoffs.

The Commanders will need some big performances from many players if they have any chance of making the playoffs. No one will need to make the jump, however, quite like rookie QB Jayden Daniels. With a seemingly not-quite-finished roster, Daniels will need to do a lot of the heavy lifting to take Washington to the next level. He has already shown great potential so far, but three games is a small sample size. Realistically, as high as Commanders fans’ hopes are for the LSU star, a quarterback cannot singlehandedly lead his team to the postseason.  Football is a team game and the Commanders simply will not survive — much less earn a playoff berth — without a solid O-line to protect Daniels, without pass catchers not named Terry McLaurin, or without a defense that can stop the opponent from scoring.